Michael Mann’s special purpose Hockey Stick filter has been exposed

Erick Brockway:

H/t Mark Steyn, who also writes about the “Big Pause” in so-called Global Warming:

I’m currently thinking about courtroom strategy for the upcoming trial of the century. If I were just playing it for laughs, I’d pick climate-science assertions by Mann and me from the last 15 years and invite his witnesses to discuss which ones are closer to where the science is today. But the reality is you don’t really need to “predict” terribly much – not if you believe, as I did then and as I do now, in natural climate variablity. Judging from that Science study and other recent papers, natural variability is back in – which means Mann is increasingly out. Because his main contribution to the debate was abolishing the very concept of natural variability:

Mann’s “hockey stick” shows that there was no such thing as “global warming” until the Industrial Revolution took off bigtime. So, in Mann’s science, 100 per cent of “global warming” is anthropogenic. In that case, where did it all go in the 21st century? See Tony Allwright’s graph above: China and India industrialized in double-quick time, and it made no difference. One obvious explanation is that there is a non-anthropogenic element in play, something called “natural climate variability”.

But Mann and the other Warmanos can’t admit to that. Because the important and influential part of Mann’s hockey stick is not the blade (as Steve McIntyre says, very few people dispute that it’s warmer now than 200 years ago) but the shaft. In abolishing the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age, Dr Mann wound up abolishing the very concept of “natural climate variability”. To the point where all his rube celebrity pals believe there was a millennium-long stable climate until industrial, consumerist humans came along and broiled the planet.

They believe that because that’s what the hockey stick told them.

Believe and obey.

Originally posted on Watts Up With That?:

Jean S writes at Climate Audit:

diverg33[1]

As most readers are aware, and stated in my post few hours after (ClimateGate) CG broke out, Mike’s Nature trick was first uncovered by UC here.

He was able to replicate (visually perfectly) the smooths of MBH9x thereby showing that the smooths involved padding with the instrumental data. The filter used by UC was the zero-phase Butterworth filter (an IIR filter), which has been Mann’s favourite since at least 2003. However, there was something else that I felt was odd: UC’s emulation required a very long (100 samples or so) additional zero padding. So about two years ago, I decided to take an additional look at the topic with UC.

Indeed, after digitalizing Mann’s smooths we discovered that UC’s emulation was very, very good but not perfect. After a long research, and countless hours of experimenting (I won’t bore you with the details)…

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Amazing! 15 Qassam rockets intercepted by Israeli Iron Dome

Get you some!

H/t Lachlan

Posted in Politics

The Ice Bucket Challenge is starting to make me crazy, but the “Picard” one is good!

Beam me some of what he’s having

Yea, yeah, I know it’s for a good cause…

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More awesomeness from Johnathan Gentry on “Celebrity Peacekeepers” flocking to #Ferguson

Johnathan-GentryCalled by the racist term “Uncle Ruckus” by some maggots on the left, Johnathan Gentry is saying what everyone on the left who isn’t serving some statist “higher cause” should be saying.

Don’t just talk peace in front of cameras and get back in your limos, preach it to the mobs. Tell them to their face.

If that sentiment means he should be demeaned and denigrated by totalitarian freaks like those at Crooks and Liars, then the problem is them.

One Gentry rant went viral earlier in the week with a message directly to the mobs: “What we’re doing out here is not helping.”

Now the Fox News network gave him an even bigger platform for his message, and suddenly he’s “Uncle Tom” and etc.

Watch:

h/t Buelah

 

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Another heavy PSA about texting and driving

A lot of us text while driving, and we all need to stop -

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Yeah, getting tired of “Happy” too

So is Donna Reed -

h/t Chris

UPDATE: The proper thing to do with an annoying song is a parody:

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Star Trek: Axanar – Independently produced, Kickstarter funded, looks damn good

My first introduction to this new Star Trek movie was from James Lileks on Twitter:

STA

Screenshot from 20 minute Intro to Axanar

Watch the video embedded above, then read the intro from the movie web site:

“Axanar” takes place 21 years before the events of “Where no Man Has Gone Before”, the first Kirk episode of the original Star Trek. Axanar is the story of Garth of Izar, the legendary Starfleet captain who is Captain Kirk’s hero. Kirk himself called Garth the model for all future Starfleet Officer’s. Garth charted more planets than any other Captain and was the hero of the Battle of Axanar, the story of which is required reading at the academy. This is that story.

“Axanar” tells the story of Garth and his crew during the Four Years War, the war with the Klingon Empire that almost tore the Federation apart. Garth’s victory at Axanar solidified the Federation and allowed it to become the entity we know in Kirk’s time.

It is the year 2245, four years into the war with the Klingons.

The movie itself is largely funded through a Kickstarter campaign:

Axanar is the independent Star Trek film which proves that a feature-quality Star Trek film can be made on a small budget.

(PLEASE NOTE:  Kickstarter will not charge your pledge till the end of the campaign on August 22.  So you have that much time to save up!)

Our 20-minute short film, Prelude to Axanar, premiered Saturday, July 26th, 2014, at San Diego Comic Con and features Richard Hatch, Tony Todd, Kate Vernon, JG Hertzler and Gary Graham, who reprises his role of Soval from “Enterprise”.  The makeup was done byAcademy Award winner Kevin Haney and Star Trek veteran Brad Look and Make Up Effects Lab.  Top that off with the amazing visual effects of Tobias Richter and The Light Works, and sound by Academy Award winner Frank Serafine, and the result is Prelude to Axanar: something unlike anything you have ever seen before.  We have our loyal donors to thank for this!

[Note the costs involved!]

This Kickstarter is for the full-length feature Axanar Unlike the short film, which we shot in two days and cost $75,000, the 90-minute Axanar feature will take about 20 days and cost about $650,000.  So we are breaking up our costs into discreet sections which should allow us to reach significant milestones, as we don’t expect to raise all $650,000 at once.  This first Kickstarter will be for the sound stage and set construction.  Anything over what we need for that will be applied to the feature production costs.  Full details are below.

Could you imagine this taking off and actually hitting theaters? That would be cool!

But, speaking for myself, I would rather buy a ticket to the movie or purchase the DVD. My limited funds go to survival and a $20 here and there to politicians I think I can trust.

So, hope it takes off, and the 20 minute prelude looks great.

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